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Pavement Deterioration Models Review

Project No: 130118

Target Completion Date: February 28, 2028 Pavements

About the project

The Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) maintains a pavement network consisting of more than 130,000 lane miles. Each year, VDOT uses the results of an automated condition survey to quantify the pavement condition in terms of a Critical Condition Index (CCI). From this survey and considering other constraints, VDOT employs a decision-tree process to suggest one of five treatment categories to program pavement maintenance treatments each year. Pavement deterioration models that were developed by a consultant in 2007 are used to predict the future condition of a pavement based on the pavement family type and previous maintenance treatment category. The purpose of this study is to review the pavement deterioration models used in VDOTs pavement management system to determine if they still reflect the current trends of VDOT’s pavement network and suggesting updates if required.   

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Last updated: August 20, 2026

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