Exploration of Technical Developments and Data Sources that May Have Implications for Long-Range Transportation Planning in Virginia

About the project:

VTrans is the Commonwealth of Virginia’s statewide multimodal transportation plan.  Virginia’s Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment (OIPI) maintains this plan, under the supervision of the state’s Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB).  The Plan’s methodology uses several VTrans “trend trackers” (quantifiable metrics updated annually), “macrotrends” (“emerging patterns of change”), and CTB “objectives” (qualitative targets for which OIPI defines various metrics).  This research supports OIPI’s mission through four tasks related to these trackers, macrotrends, and objectives:

• Compile statistical series, historical values and future forecasts, to represent seven trend trackers in the VTrans framework. These are (a) the share of ‘Professional and Technical Services’ employment in each Virginia county and city, (b) the number of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) jobs in each county and city, (c) the number of people of age 65 and over in each county and city, (d) the share of population of age 65 and over in each county and city, (e) the total population in each county and city, (f) the total employment in each county and city, and (g) a measure of income – most likely personal income – in each county and city.  Two sets of population values will be reported: one will be based on a data set purchased from Woods & Poole; one will be based on data published by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Policy.   
• Estimate the margin of error in the Woods & Poole employment forecasts (and in the most recent historical values).
• Investigate the possibility that a statistic derived from one or more of the trend trackers compiled in Task 1 has the potential to alter expectations of travel demand.
• The investigators set aside some time in the project timeline to explore at least one additional area of stakeholder interest that comes to the attention of the technical review panel in the course of the study. 

Project Team

Co-Principal Investigators