Calibration and Implementation of Highway Safety Manual Bicyclist and Pedestrian Intersection Crash Prediction Models

About the project:

The forthcoming 2nd Edition of the AASHTO Highway Safety Manual (HSM2) will introduce dedicated crash prediction models (CPMs) for pedestrian and bicyclist crashes at intersections, midblock crossings, and roadway segments.  The goal of this research is to calibrate the HSM2 pedestrian and bicyclist intersection CPMs using Virginia-specific data. The research outcomes will enhance the accuracy of nonmotorized crash predictions and support VDOT’s broader goals of data-driven planning, design decision-making, and funding prioritization for safety improvements. To achieve this goal, the research will (1) assemble a comprehensive dataset for selected representative intersections in Virginia, including crash history, exposure data, and roadway and roadside design features required by the HSM2 CPMs, (2) develop appropriate methods for estimating pedestrian and bicyclist exposure at intersections, considering available data sources, (3) develop a robust calibration methodology that accounts for the variability of contextual settings, exposure ranges, facility types and jurisdictions, etc., and (4) design a practical tool and accompanying guidance to help VDOT implement and maintain the calibrated pedestrian and bicyclist CPMs.

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